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We've Cleared the Neutral Zone

Which of these claims, would you say, is simply a neutral statement of fact? A.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our national infrastructure will decay, our citizens will not keep up with the world, and older Americans will suffer.  We need to spend now to ensure we get the America we want." B.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our most productive citizens will be taxed into oblivion.  We need to cut taxes now if we want to create jobs and ensure maximum freedom for all Americans." C.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our national deficit and mounting debt will grow out of control...We need to make real choices now to ensure that our nation continues to invest in national priorities." I hope you realize it's a trick question: none of them are neutral statements of fact.  All three state political positions.  "Spend more" is a political position.  "Cut taxes" is ...

We've Cleared the Neutral Zone

Which of these claims, would you say, is simply a neutral statement of fact? A.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our national infrastructure will decay, our citizens will not keep up with the world, and older Americans will suffer.  We need to spend now to ensure we get the America we want." B.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our most productive citizens will be taxed into oblivion.  We need to cut taxes now if we want to create jobs and ensure maximum freedom for all Americans." C.  "Unless we take necessary steps to plan for the future, our national deficit and mounting debt will grow out of control...We need to make real choices now to ensure that our nation continues to invest in national priorities." I hope you realize it's a trick question: none of them are neutral statements of fact.  All three state political positions.  "Spend more" is a political position.  "Cut taxes" is ...

CBO's ACA Follies

I agree completely with Brad DeLong (the "technocrat" reaction) and Kevin Drum about the CBO's strange decision to include future changes in the ACA as part of their alternative fiscal scenario. A quick explanation...part of CBO's job is to let Congress (and the rest of us) know what is likely to happen to the budget well into the future.  That's difficult enough because it requires guesses about long-run demographic and economic trends, which become wilder and wilder guesses as they go farther into the future.  It's even trickier if everyone knows that there are certain things that Congress is going to do that are not reflected in current law.  So CBO, quite sensibly, does separate estimates: one for current law, and one for what everyone knows is going to happen. Of course, the latter is tricky.  There are a two significant easy ones: the alternate minimum tax, and the doc fix.   The baseline, in each case, is clearly phony; every year, Congress takes a...

CBO's ACA Follies

I agree completely with Brad DeLong (the "technocrat" reaction) and Kevin Drum about the CBO's strange decision to include future changes in the ACA as part of their alternative fiscal scenario. A quick explanation...part of CBO's job is to let Congress (and the rest of us) know what is likely to happen to the budget well into the future.  That's difficult enough because it requires guesses about long-run demographic and economic trends, which become wilder and wilder guesses as they go farther into the future.  It's even trickier if everyone knows that there are certain things that Congress is going to do that are not reflected in current law.  So CBO, quite sensibly, does separate estimates: one for current law, and one for what everyone knows is going to happen. Of course, the latter is tricky.  There are a two significant easy ones: the alternate minimum tax, and the doc fix.   The baseline, in each case, is clearly phony; every year, Congress takes a...

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